\n| Any outcome at 100 mg<\/td>\n | no significant effect at any timing (p>.05)<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Read the last two rows together, because that is the finding almost nobody reports. Deep sleep was significantly reduced at every single timing tested, including 12 hours before bed. Perceived sleep quality was significantly worse only at 4 hours. The authors state the implication directly: individuals may have difficulty accurately perceiving the influence of caffeine on sleep quality.<\/p>\n Twelve hours before an 11pm bedtime is 11am. A single large coffee at eleven in the morning measurably cut deep sleep that night, and the people it happened to could not feel it.<\/p>\n Original CEOtudent analysis. The detectability gap, derived from the trial’s own results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n| Hours before bed<\/th>\n | Deep sleep measurably reduced<\/th>\n | Sleeper noticed<\/th>\n | Gap<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| 12<\/td>\n | Yes, -20.6 min<\/td>\n | No<\/td>\n | Damage invisible<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 8<\/td>\n | Yes, -15.3 min<\/td>\n | No<\/td>\n | Damage invisible<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 4<\/td>\n | Yes, -29.7 min<\/td>\n | Yes, -34.0% rating<\/td>\n | Damage visible<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Two of the three timings sit in a blind spot. If you have ever concluded that afternoon coffee does not affect you because you slept fine, this table is the reason that conclusion is not evidence.<\/p>\n The good news in the same trial: 100 mg, roughly a small cup, produced no significant effect on objective or subjective sleep at any of the three timings, including four hours before bed. Dose matters more than time of day.<\/p>\n <\/span>Why cutoff times fail: the half-life you cannot see<\/span><\/h2>\nEFSA reports the plasma half-life of caffeine in healthy adults as a mean of about 4 hours with a range of about 2 to 8 hours. The ISSN position stand reports the average as 4 to 6 hours with individual values ranging from 1.5 to 10 hours. Over 95% of caffeine is cleared by a single liver enzyme, CYP1A2, whose activity varies widely between people.<\/p>\n Nobody publishes what that variation does to your bedtime exposure, so we computed it. The maths is standard first-order elimination: what remains equals the dose multiplied by one half raised to the power of hours divided by half-life. We used EFSA’s own mean and range.<\/p>\n Original CEOtudent analysis. Modelled caffeine remaining at bedtime, in mg, from EFSA’s published half-life parameters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n| Dose taken<\/th>\n | Half-life 2h (fast)<\/th>\n | Half-life 4h (population mean)<\/th>\n | Half-life 8h (slow)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| 100 mg, 4 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 25.0<\/td>\n | 50.0<\/td>\n | 70.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 100 mg, 8 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 6.3<\/td>\n | 25.0<\/td>\n | 50.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 200 mg, 4 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 50.0<\/td>\n | 100.0<\/td>\n | 141.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 200 mg, 8 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 12.5<\/td>\n | 50.0<\/td>\n | 100.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 400 mg, 4 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 100.0<\/td>\n | 200.0<\/td>\n | 282.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 400 mg, 8 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 25.0<\/td>\n | 100.0<\/td>\n | 200.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 400 mg, 12 hours before bed<\/td>\n | 6.3<\/td>\n | 50.0<\/td>\n | 141.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n This is a model, not a measurement: it assumes clean first-order elimination and ignores absorption time, food, oral contraceptives, smoking and pregnancy, all of which shift clearance. Use it for the ratio, not the decimal.<\/p>\n The ratio is the point. The same 400 mg, twelve hours before bed, leaves 6.3 mg in a fast metaboliser and 141.4 mg in a slow one. That is a 22.6-fold difference in exposure from identical behaviour. Set EFSA’s sleep-relevant threshold of 100 mg against the table and the rule falls out: after 400 mg, a fast metaboliser is under it within 4 hours, the average person needs 8, and a slow metaboliser needs 16.<\/p>\n Sixteen hours. There is no time of day at which a slow metaboliser can take 400 mg and be clear by bedtime.<\/p>\n This also explains the trial’s strangest result. At the population mean half-life, 400 mg twelve hours out leaves 50 mg, well under EFSA’s threshold, and yet deep sleep still fell significantly. Either the effect was carried by the slower-clearing participants in that sample of 23, or residuals below 100 mg still disturb sleep architecture. We cannot resolve which from the published data, and the practical instruction is the same either way: your personal half-life, not the clock, sets your cutoff.<\/p>\n | | |