{"id":174299,"date":"2022-01-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceotudent.com\/?p=174299"},"modified":"2026-09-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T00:00:00","slug":"the-problem-today-dunning-kruger-syndrome-also-called-ignorant-courage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceotudent.com\/en\/the-problem-today-dunning-kruger-syndrome-also-called-ignorant-courage","title":{"rendered":"The Dunning-Kruger Effect: The Evidence Behind Confident Incompetence Is Weaker Than You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"

TL;DR.<\/strong> What you think you know about the Dunning-Kruger effect is probably overstated. The original 1999 paper ran four studies and found a real mismatch: participants in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar and logic sat at the 12th percentile but estimated themselves at the 62nd, a gap of roughly 50 percentile points. But in 2020, a paper in Intelligence argued that the standard four-quartile plotting method producing that finding is confounded by the better-than-average effect and regression toward the mean. Applying two valid statistical tests to 929 participants, the authors failed to find the variance pattern the hypothesis predicts and found the relationship between measured and self-assessed intelligence to be essentially entirely linear. The conclusion is not that the effect does not exist. It is that its magnitude may be much smaller than previously reported<\/strong>. If you manage yourself like a CEO, that distinction matters: confident incompetence is not a finding solid enough to use as an insult, but the weakness of self-assessment is a different and better supported fact.<\/p>\n

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